By Gamini Abeywardane
The row that
was brewing up in the SLFP and the UPFA since Maithripala Sirisena came forward
to contest the presidency reached new heights with the issue over former President Mahinda
Rajapaksa’s call to be nominated as the prime ministerial candidate.
The request
was publicly turned down by President Maithripala, but the entire episode took a
new turn when nomination was given to Rajapaksa due to pressure from the
majority, though without the prime ministerial tag. UPFA nominations were never an easy affair; they
were finalized after much debate and infighting without the wholehearted
support of its leader President Maithripala.
For weeks
Maithripala maintained silence over the issue despite much public criticism
over his acceding to pressures of Rajapaksa group. Finally he dropped a
political bombshell changing the entire political landscape when he spoke his
mind breaking his silence. He made a
public statement explaining the circumstances that led to nominations being
given to Rajapaksa. He also did not mince his words when he said that he did
not favour the idea of Rajapaksa contesting parliamentary elections.
His message
was something unprecedented. The party leader himself was saying that his party
will not be able to win and further that even if they win Rajapaksa will not be
made the Prime Minister. This was certainly a deadly blow to Rajapaksa and all
those who are vying for a government led by him.
Maithripala’s
stance is unlikely to change whatever the electoral outcome is going to be.
Even If the UPFA secures a majority sufficient to form a government, it will be
of no use without the support of the President who according to the
constitution will be the head of the cabinet as well as the head of the
government. The President can appoint as the Prime Minister, the Member of Parliament,
who, in his opinion, is most likely to command the confidence of Parliament.
The
President’s exercise of this constitutional power cannot be challenged in a
court of law. This is how R Premadasa was appointed as Prime Minister by
President J R Jayawardene, D B Wijetunga was appointed as PM by President
Premadasa, Rathnasiri Wickramanayake was appointed as PM by President Kumaratunga,
D M Jayaratner was appointed as PM by President Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil
Wickremesinghe was appointed as PM by President Maithripala Sirisena. None of
these appointments were challenged irrespective of whether these persons
commanded the confidence of parliament or not.
However one
cannot discount the fact that in all those previous instances there was no
formidable challenge to the President’s choice of the prime minister. In some
instances there were claimants for the post on the ground of seniority etc. but
none of them came forward to challenge the President’s decision.
A further
complication is unavoidable in case the President goes ahead with prime
ministerial appointment ignoring the popular demand. Though the very act of
appointment cannot be legally challenged, there is a greater likelihood of subsequent no
confidence motions under different grounds unless the person appointed as the PM manages to win the
confidence of the parliament within a reasonable time.
In the event
Rajapaksa is unable to form a government the real loser will be he himself as
there will be hardly any point in sitting as an ordinary MP. In such a
situation the issue whether he can continue to enjoy the benefits of a former
President will also be likely to arise. All his backers especially non SLFPers
like Udaya Gammanpila, Dinesh Gunawardana, Vasudeva Nanayakkara and Wimal Weerrawansa
will benefit immensely if they get elected to the parliament which they would
not otherwise be able to achieve on their own strength.
However in a
scenario where the UNP secures the majority in the parliament they will have
lesser problems as they will enjoy the full backing of the President. As
already declared by Ranil Wickremesinghe, if they win, there is quite a strong
possibility of forming a coalition government with Maithri faction of the SLFP.
While the
two main parties are vying for the control of the parliament the JVP seems to
be working hard to emerge as a stronger third force with more seats. With the
momentum they gained by being a major ally with the forces that got together to
defeat the Rajapaksa regime at the last presidential election, they seem to be
confident of gaining more representation in the parliament. With their
unequivocal stance against authoritarianism and corruption, they seem to be
gaining ground as a stronger force.
The events
in the next few weeks will decide the outcome of the impending election. As
campaign gets intensified, both sides seem to be hopeful of a clear majority in
the parliament. An important yardstick in this regard will be the election manifestos
yet to be unfolded, through which each party will put forward its policies and
programmes that will entice people to vote for them.
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