Nominations and the aftermath: Likely scenarios

By Gamini Abeywardane

The row that was brewing up in the SLFP and the UPFA since Maithripala Sirisena came forward to contest the presidency reached new heights with the issue over former President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s call to be nominated as the prime ministerial candidate.

The request was publicly turned down by President Maithripala, but the entire episode took a new turn when nomination was given to Rajapaksa due to pressure from the majority, though without the prime ministerial tag.  UPFA nominations were never an easy affair; they were finalized after much debate and infighting without the wholehearted support of its leader President Maithripala.

For weeks Maithripala maintained silence over the issue despite much public criticism over his acceding to pressures of Rajapaksa group. Finally he dropped a political bombshell changing the entire political landscape when he spoke his mind breaking his silence. He made a public statement explaining the circumstances that led to nominations being given to Rajapaksa. He also did not mince his words when he said that he did not favour the idea of Rajapaksa contesting parliamentary elections.

His message was something unprecedented. The party leader himself was saying that his party will not be able to win and further that even if they win Rajapaksa will not be made the Prime Minister. This was certainly a deadly blow to Rajapaksa and all those who are vying for a government led by him.

Maithripala’s stance is unlikely to change whatever the electoral outcome is going to be. Even If the UPFA secures a majority sufficient to form a government, it will be of no use without the support of the President who according to the constitution will be the head of the cabinet as well as the head of the government. The President can appoint as the Prime Minister, the Member of Parliament, who, in his opinion, is most likely to command the confidence of Parliament.

The President’s exercise of this constitutional power cannot be challenged in a court of law. This is how R Premadasa was appointed as Prime Minister by President J R Jayawardene, D B Wijetunga was appointed as PM by President Premadasa, Rathnasiri Wickramanayake was appointed as PM by President Kumaratunga, D M Jayaratner was appointed as PM by President Mahinda Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed as PM by President Maithripala Sirisena. None of these appointments were challenged irrespective of whether these persons commanded the confidence of parliament or not.

However one cannot discount the fact that in all those previous instances there was no formidable challenge to the President’s choice of the prime minister. In some instances there were claimants for the post on the ground of seniority etc. but none of them came forward to challenge the President’s decision.

A further complication is unavoidable in case the President goes ahead with prime ministerial appointment ignoring the popular demand. Though the very act of appointment cannot be legally challenged, there is a greater likelihood of subsequent no confidence motions under different grounds unless the person appointed as the PM manages to win the confidence of the parliament within a reasonable time.

In the event Rajapaksa is unable to form a government the real loser will be he himself as there will be hardly any point in sitting as an ordinary MP. In such a situation the issue whether he can continue to enjoy the benefits of a former President will also be likely to arise. All his backers especially non SLFPers like Udaya Gammanpila, Dinesh Gunawardana, Vasudeva Nanayakkara and Wimal Weerrawansa will benefit immensely if they get elected to the parliament which they would not otherwise be able to achieve on their own strength.

However in a scenario where the UNP secures the majority in the parliament they will have lesser problems as they will enjoy the full backing of the President. As already declared by Ranil Wickremesinghe, if they win, there is quite a strong possibility of forming a coalition government with Maithri faction of the SLFP.

While the two main parties are vying for the control of the parliament the JVP seems to be working hard to emerge as a stronger third force with more seats. With the momentum they gained by being a major ally with the forces that got together to defeat the Rajapaksa regime at the last presidential election, they seem to be confident of gaining more representation in the parliament. With their unequivocal stance against authoritarianism and corruption, they seem to be gaining ground as a stronger force.

The events in the next few weeks will decide the outcome of the impending election. As campaign gets intensified, both sides seem to be hopeful of a clear majority in the parliament. An important yardstick in this regard will be the election manifestos yet to be unfolded, through which each party will put forward its policies and programmes that will entice people to vote for them.  

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National list: What it should be and what it is today

Lakshman Kadirgamar

“The constitution does not call it a national list. Perhaps it is referred to as a national list simply because the seats are allocated according to the number of votes each party polls on the national basis. There is no criterion as to suitability or qualifications of the persons to be included in the list unlike the nominated members in the Senate under the Soulbury Constitution. They simply have to be persons qualified to be elected as Members of Parliament.”

By Gamini Abeywardane

Democracy is all about people electing their representatives to make laws and govern them. Theoretically they are expected to elect the most suitable candidates with proper education and character as their representatives. But in today’s political environment it does not always happen that way. Political process has become so complex that in order to win elections one may need colossal amounts of money, craftiness and many other attributes which are totally different from conventional good character, education or genuineness.

This makes it practically impossible for such honest and genuine people to enter parliament though their presence in the legislature is much desirable from the country’s point of view. In the process some important interests or communities will not get the opportunity of being represented in the parliament. This should be the idea behind appointed members or the national list. It is the place for intellectuals, professionals, business leaders and persons competent in other fields to make their contribution to the national life. Such persons unlike the full time politicians are not able to go through the tedious process of campaigning to win elections.

Sri Lanka’s first constitution, Soulbury Constitution had provision for six such appointed members in the House of Representatives. The relevant provision in the constitution said, “There shall be six Members appointed by the Governor General after every general election to represent any important interest in the Island which in his opinion is not represented or is inadequately represented.”

The same constitution had provision for appointment of 15 members on similar grounds into the 30 member Senate. The relevant section stated, “The Governor General shall endeavor to appoint persons who he is satisfied have rendered distinguished public service or are persons of eminence in professional, commercial, industrial, or agricultural life, including education, law , medicine, science, engineering and banking.”

The United Left Front government which abolished the Soulbury Constitution was in a hurry to introduce revolutionary changes in the country and disregarded even some of the good features of that constitution. As a result they did not give much thought to this aspect and the first republican constitution had no provision for appointed members of whatever type.

The J R Jayawardene government which came into power in 1977 introduced the second republican constitution in 1978, but contrary to the policies they had embraced earlier they did not reintroduce a Senate or any other provision to add the services of outstanding personalities to the parliament.

Later through the fourteenth amendment to the constitution they increased the number of parliamentary seats by 29 to make it 225 by making provision for political parties to nominate additional members in proportion to the total votes they poll at the General Election. The 29 seats are thus apportioned among the political parties and independent groups contesting the election and for that purpose each such party or group is required to submit a separate list.

The constitution does not call it a national list. Perhaps it is referred to as a national list simply because the seats are allocated according to the number of votes each party polls on the national basis. There is no criterion as to suitability or qualifications of the persons to be included in the list unlike the nominated members in the Senate under the Soulbury Constitution. They simply have to be persons qualified to be elected as Members of Parliament.

With General Elections in the offing the issue about including persons of some standing who can be useful to the country has come up in the public debate again. However judging by the past, one cannot expect our political parties to nominate such outstanding persons through their national lists.

Often they have used the national list to accommodate person who have been rejected by the people at previous elections or unsuitable persons who cannot otherwise stand elections and win but are useful for the kind of dirty politics played by these parties.

If we look at the recent past Lakshman Kadirgamar was a shining example of an outstanding person who had entered the parliament through the national list. The last parliament had the likes of Dr. Harsha de Silva, Professor G L Peires and Eran Wickremaratne as national list MPs while it has also accommodated the likes of Mervyn Silva at different times.

The awareness created by the media and public pressure can influence the political parties to some extent to discard the practice of accommodating questionable characters through the national list. The appointment of unsuitable persons has become easier in the absence of a constitutional criterion for these appointments. Such a criterion similar to what was found in the Soulbury constitution for appointment of senators should be introduced through a future constitutional amendment.

  

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Will Sirisena’s surreptitious move save the SLFP?

By Gamini Abeywardane

Politics is the art of the possible.  As Bismark said, it's not about what's right or what's best. It's about what you can actually get done. This perhaps is what President Maithripala Sirisena has done after being embroiled in a controversy for weeks whether to give nomination to former President Mahinda Rajapaksa or not.

It is more likely that he has done so as an act of last resort fearing he would lose the SLFP leadership in the event he withheld nomination to Rajapaksa who has been rising like a Phoenix from the ashes since his defeat in January. Despite strong opposition from the Chandrika faction of the SLPF and most others who stood behind him at the last presidential election, Sirisena seems to have taken a difficult decision.

The decision already seems to have begun to divide the party although Sirisena appears to have done so to prevent a split. With some of the party stalwarts who supported him having already decided to leave in protest the medicine appears to be worse than the cure. With divided opinion in the party on issues of democracy, good governance and the way Mahinda Rajapaksa conducted party affairs during his tenure, keeping the party together seems a Herculean task.

What Sirisena has done is trying to balance the interests of three different groups – the UNP, campaigners for good governance and his own party SLFP. He won the presidency with the help of the UNP vote base and he paid his gratitude by helping them to form a government and made Ranil the Prime Minister. To a great extent he satisfied good governance campaigners led by Venerable Maduluwawe Sobitha Thera by introducing the nineteenth amendment. Finally he would have thought of saving his party by giving nomination to Mahinda Rajapaksa from the UPFA.

He would probably have thought that ignoring the Rajapaksa faction would have resulted in a major split facilitating an easy victory for the UNP which would put him in an embarrassing situation with his party supporters blaming him for destroying the SLFP. His own fears of having to face such an ignominy would have compelled him to take the decision even unwillingly.

On the contrary, by trying to avert a major split in the party he has now distanced himself from an important section of his staunch supporters. Already, a former cabinet minister and SLFP treasurer S B Navinna has joined the UNP while there is much speculation about several others including Arjuna Ranatunga, Hirunika Premachandra and Rajitha Senaratne too following suit. Most of them are ardent supports of the former president Chandrika Kumaratunga. She was instrumental in persuading Sirisena to come forward as the common candidate against Rajapaksa and the decision to give nominations to him would have certainly infuriated her. 

Despite much speculation the picture is still not clear and what makes everyone suspicious is the unusual silence of Sirisena following UPFA Secretary General Susil Premajayantha’s statement on Rajapaksa getting nomination. However, the silence of Chandrika Kumaratunga and Ranil Wickramasinghe is perhaps because both being unhappy over the decision are likely to work together behind the scene to see that Rajapaksa is defeated.

In the circumstances all the SLFP stalwarts who are opposing the return of Rajapaksas will naturally rally round Kumaratunga. Hela Urumaya led by Venerable Athuraliye Rathana Thera has already announced that they will form a broader front for good governance opposing Rajapaksa. Both these groups are likely to join a future UNP led front with the common aim of preventing Rajapksa’s return, the same way they worked together to defeat him at the last presidential election.

This unexpected development has resulted in a section of Maithri supporters drifting towards the UNP adding much boost to their campaign. It is too early to predict how all this would affect the result of the coming election. However, if the trend continues with more people moving towards the UNP, it may even facilitate an eventual victory for them and this ironically is what Sirisena would have tried to avert by surreptitiously accommodating Rajapaksa through the UPFA.

 

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SLFP split looks inevitable

By Gamini Abeywardane

The most important issue in today’s political debate seems to be the central question who will contest with whom at the forthcoming general election. The main reason for this is the re-emergence of Mahinda Rajapaksa as a formidable candidate despite his defeat in the last presidential election – a rather unlikely phenomenon in the rest of the democratic world.

The net result is that already there are two factions of the SLFP and a major part of the previous administration’s unusually large cabinet is with the Rajapaksa group, while the rest are with the current President Maithripala Sirisena. A call has been made by many of them to nominate Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate of the SLFP.  All indications from the Maithri faction have been to suggest that they are not amenable to the idea.

President Maithripala has gone on record saying that his party would not nominate a prime ministerial candidate and the prime minister will be chosen by the members who will be elected to the parliament. This in effect is an indication that he is not ready to accommodate the former president as his party’s prime ministerial candidate.

Maithripala Sirisena as the current leader of the party according to the party’s constitution enjoys vital powers with regard to determining the nominations at elections. Technically he has the ability to manipulate within the party in all important matters of party administration. Unlike the UNP constitution the SLFP constitution does not make one the leader of the party by virtue of his being the incumbent president of the country.  Nevertheless occupying the presidential seat gives Maithri a lot of leverage when running his political party as its leader.

Despite attempts by various parties to put the two factions together, the question remains as to what extent they can work together. Having worked together to topple the government of Mahinda Rajapaksa, still there seems to be much cordiality and understanding among Ranil Wickremesinghe, Maithripala Sirisena and Chandrika Kumaratunga while no such good relations seem to prevail between any of them and Mahinda Rajapaksa.

In such a scenario, despite whatever political pressure, there is much doubt as to whether Rajapaksa would be recognized as the prime ministerial candidate of the SLFP. On the other hand Rajapaksa and his supporters have quite strongly laid claim to the position and are ready to contest even under a different banner in the event the SLFP refuses to give them the opportunity.

Mahinda Rajapksa has already announced that his group will be contesting the forthcoming general election as the people’s request cannot be ignored. However he has been careful enough not say under what party or symbol he would be contesting leaving room for him to negotiate with the incumbent president.

However it is not a secret that there has been much animosity between Mahinda and Maithri ever since the latter came forward to contest as the common candidate of the then opposition. Maithri’s decision to do so was greatly influenced by the way he was treated by the Rajapaksas when he was a minister. One of the main grievances was the denial of the premiership to him despite seniority.

Then there is the long standing feud between Mahinda and Chandrika. The influence she has over Maithripala and the party matters in general will also stand in the way of any amicable settlement.

Finally there are the likes of the JVP, Venerable Maduluwawe Sobitha thero and his National Movement for a Just Society and others who backed the candidature of Maithripala at the last presidential election including Sarath Fonseka who will not be happy with the idea of Rajapaksa becoming powerful again.

These factors would make any amity between the two warring factions of the SLFP a remote possibility unless there is change of heart at the last minute in the greater interest of the party. In this regard one cannot forget Maithripala’s recent statement that the country is more important than the party which is an indication that he is not ready to work with Rajapaksa in order to save the party.

With the people being still confused, nominations being still on and election campaign yet to begin, one may not be able to guess the outcome of the forthcoming election. Meantime the UNP seems to have recovered from most of its ailments and is getting ready to cash in from the situation. With the current developments one finds it difficult to expect unity in the SLPF and it is the UNP that is most likely to benefit from such a split.

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